3rd Reason: A Leap of Faith

To act against GW requires what is essentially a leap of faith. Are we really going to have climate change? How bad will it be? What if we act and all the scientists turn out to have been wrong, or Tom’s historical review of the industrial revolution and population growth was just a lot of hot air? Wouldn’t we have wasted huge amounts of national resources in an attempt to battle a non-existent boogie man? What if?

There is a wonderful little book by Greg Craven called “What’s the worst that could happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate” in which he addresses this issue by helping the reader create a decision grid which looks something like this:

ACTION

Global Warming	A Significant Action Now	B Little or No Action Now
False	Huge expense wasted	Party time!
True	Economic costs Increased regulations But worth it!	Global catastrophe (economic, social, political, public health, environmental)

On the left of the chart is Global Warming, True or False. Across the top are two choices: to act or not to act. In the middle of the grid are the consequences of each action if GW is false or if it is true. The author, like myself, would rather act in case GW is true and avoid global catastrophe and risk the waste if it turns out to be false. 

But in any case, because we have never been confronted with any issue like it, and because all our predictions about GW are highly educated guesses, not based (because they can’t be) on actual experience, deciding to take action is an act of faith. And so far, too many of us, especially those who rely on experience and certainty, can’t yet trust a bunch of scientists peering with highly technical and difficult-to-understand lenses into a never before experienced future.

Wouldn’t it be SO much easier if we could rely on experience and say something like, “Remember what happened a few centuries ago when we had our last global warming? That was a disaster because the idiots who were around then didn’t take action in time. Let’s be smarter this time and act now!” But of course we can’t. But perhaps we can find another way, and perhaps you, dear reader, can help me. Comments welcome!